Publication
About Fault Lines
What this publication covers, and how it is written.
Fault Lines covers the places where the system is most likely to break. That means two families of risk that are usually written about separately: strategic risk, in Ukraine, Iran and the Taiwan Strait, and financial risk, in private credit, the AI capital cycle and real estate. They belong together, because the transmission runs between them.
How we write
Analysis, not breaking news. Every piece tries to do three things: explain the mechanism, say what would have to be true for the pessimistic case, and list the specific indicators a reader can check without waiting for us.
We separate what is known from what is inferred, and we say which is which. We are interested in being useful to people who have to make decisions under uncertainty, which means being explicit about what would change our minds.
On the tone
The subject matter is grim and the analysis tries not to be theatrical about it. Pessimism is a hypothesis to be tested, not an identity. Where the evidence points the other way, we say so.
Contact
Tips, corrections and disagreement: hello@example.com. Corrections are published on the article itself and dated.